ENHANCING SUPPLY CHAIN RESILIENCE AMID GEOPOLITICAL CHALLENGES: A STUDY OF PAKISTAN’S MANUFACTURING SECTOR

Abstract

Geopolitical tensions—including trade wars, regional conflicts, and regulatory pressures—have disrupted global supply chains, exposing vulnerabilities, particularly in emerging economies such as Pakistan. Although initiatives like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) provide strategic advantages, Pakistan remains susceptible to risks stemming from supplier dependence, geopolitical volatility, and regulatory compliance requirements, including European Union ESG standards, underscoring the need for resilient supply chains. This study investigates the impact of supplier dependence, regional integration, geopolitical risk exposure, and regulatory compliance pressure on supply chain resilience within Pakistan’s manufacturing sector, with a focus on firms in Karachi and Lahore. Employing a cross-sectional quantitative design, data from 144 managers across various industries were analyzed using PLS-SEM. The proposed model explains 60.8% of the variance in supply chain resilience, with supplier dependence identified as the strongest predictor, followed by regional integration and regulatory compliance pressure; geopolitical risk exposure exhibited a lower-than-anticipated effect. Grounded in Dependency, Regional Value Chain, Realist, and Institutional theories, the study provides actionable insights for managers and policymakers. Recommendations include diversifying supplier networks, strengthening regional trade linkages, enhancing risk monitoring systems, and investing in compliance infrastructure. Limitations of the study include the sample size and potential self-report bias.