GEOPOLITICAL INFLUENCES AND SUPPLY CHAIN RESILIENCE: INSIGHTS FROM PAKISTAN’S MANUFACTURING SECTOR

Abstract

Geopolitical tensions such as trade wars, regional conflicts, and regulatory pressures have exposed vulnerabilities in global supply chains, especially in emerging economies like Pakistan. Despite advantages from initiatives like the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Pakistan faces risks from supplier dependence, geopolitical volatility, and stringent regulatory demands including EU ESG standards. This study investigates how supplier dependence, regional integration, geopolitical risk, and regulatory compliance affect supply chain resilience in Pakistan’s manufacturing sector, based on data from 144 managers in Karachi and Lahore analyzed via PLS-SEM. Results show supplier dependence as the strongest factor influencing resilience, followed by regional integration and regulatory pressures, while geopolitical risk had a lesser impact. Drawing on Dependency, Regional Value Chain, Realist, and Institutional theories, the study offers practical recommendations for diversifying suppliers, boosting regional trade, enhancing risk management, and strengthening compliance frameworks. Limitations include sample size and self-report bias.